Poll shows El Paso Republicans losing 2024 gains ahead of November midterms

A poll of El Paso County voters suggests Republicans have surrendered the political ground they gained in 2024, when GOP candidates achieved their best performance in decades across the border region, according to El Paso Matters.

The survey, conducted for the ACLU of Texas by Change Research between August 25 and September 6, interviewed 410 El Paso County adults. It found Democratic candidates holding 2-to-1 leads over Republicans in the two top races on the November 3 ballot: the U.S. Senate contest between Republican Ken Paxton and Democrat James Talarico, and the governor's race between Republican incumbent Greg Abbott and Democrat Gina Hinojosa. Those leads expanded by several percentage points among voters deemed likely or certain to vote.

Two years ago, El Paso County Republicans achieved historic results. The GOP presidential nominee won 42 percent of the county's vote, trailing Democrat Kamala Harris by 15 points—the best Republican performance in 20 years. The district attorney race also narrowed to within 15 points, a sharp improvement from routine GOP losses of 25 points or more that had defined the county's voting patterns.

But the new polling mirrors outcomes from 2020 and 2022, when Democratic candidates received nearly twice as many votes as Republicans in top-of-the-ballot races. Abbott lost El Paso County by 29 points to Beto O'Rourke in 2022, while Paxton lost by 28 points to Rochelle Mercedes Garza.

The shift reflects a national trend. Trump's job approval rating among El Paso County adults surveyed stood at just 31 percent, closer to his 32 percent vote share in 2020 than his 2024 performance. Across five border counties polled, 17 percent of those who voted for Trump in 2024 now disapprove of his performance as president. Seven percent of Trump voters in those counties said they plan to vote for Democrats Talarico and Hinojosa, though only 1 percent of Harris voters said they plan to vote for Abbott.

The survey carried a margin of error of plus or minus 4.8 percentage points for El Paso County and plus or minus 3.4 percentage points for the full five-county sample. Polling was conducted two months before Election Day, and advertising and campaign activity could still influence voters before November 3.